Saturday, April 7, 2007

Of flawed analysis and a 'tipping point' that never was

The Flip Side with Kuthula Matshazi

Since the Zanu PF conference in December last year when the delegates did not adopt any resolutions, there has been extensive opinions expressed about 2007 being a watershed year where we would see major transformations in the ruling party.
The main claims were that some members of Zanu PF who wanted to assume leadership of the party - which would qualify them to stand as the party’s presidential candidate - were definitely going to block President Robert Mugabe from seeking a further mandate to lead the party with the ultimate aim of ousting him as party leader. These analysts also told us that the factions, one led by Vice President Joyce Mujuru and the other by Minister of Rural Housing Emmerson Mnangagwa, within Zanu PF were going to block the suggestion to have the presidential and parliamentary elections harmonised in 2010 if it meant President Mugabe continuing for the ensuing two years. These scenarios have however, been rendered irrelevant since Zanu PF has decided to harmonise the elections next year. More...

42 comments:

Unknown said...

Great article, but.........

I dont understand how Tsvangirayi is solely responsible for the supposed suicidal policies of the MDC. Remember Ncube is also in SA representing his faction, and I dont think his faction is also taking orders from Tsvangirayi.

Sounds like tribalism to me......

Kuthula said...

Thanks very much. I am not tribalism at all. Far from it. Even giving you the benefit of doubt and say I am a horrible tribalist, is it nor Tsvangirai who firstly enjoys majority support in the opposition and secondly is the posterboy of opposition in Zimbabwe? Is he not the one who has been in the lead with all major decisions - flawed as they are? If I am tribalistic why would I spare Mutambara (is he Ndebele by the way?). On the contrary, although I have issues with Mutambara, especially his economic policy and suspected links with the West, I still give him favourable understanding because he has nationalist and pan Africanist vocabulary. He has been bold to come out and tell the West for who they really are.
So even if we say I am the worst tribalist, I think facts can vindicate me. That's the good thing about facts - they can assist even bad guys view issues more realistically.

Anonymous said...

i also dont understand why you say Zimbabwe is under sanctions, i thought and would like to understand that these are targeted sanctions on Mugabe and all those in his party that have ruined our country. The country's economy was well in free fall well before the West started calling for sanctions

And why do you blame Tsvangirayi for the flawed analysis, its not him who made the the flawed predictions.
And to suggest that Tsvangirayi has refused to engage with Zanu PF is false. How many times has he personally written to Mugabe suggesting they sit down and work on resolving the crisis facing the country. Besides Mugabe is in power illegally, its fact that he lost the last two elections.

What do you mean by a Pan Africanist vocubulary, all talk and no action, tell me where this so called pan africanist way of doing things has worked look at Darfur, Somalia etc where is the African solution by Africans there. We need to be realistic! I still see some tribal conortations in your article even though you deny it.

Kuthula said...

I am surprised that you are still at a stage where you deny the existence of economic sanctions. I would pose two questions. How do you define economic sanctions and secondly are you going to start believing that there are sanctions? When the West starts using that term? Obviously, they are not, for the evil they (sanctions) are.
I quote two authors who define economic sanctions:
“Donald Losman, in his book titled International Economic Sanctions: The Cases of Cuba, Israel and Rhodesia defines economic sanctions as “penalties inflicted upon one or more states by one or more others, generally to coerce the target nation(s) to comply with certain norms that the boycott initiators deem proper or necessary. The forms that economic sanctions take also include interfering or restricting the movement of people, restriction of capital flows and withholding wealth in the boycotting countries”.
Writing in the American Journal of Political Science, Yale University assistant professor Nikolay Marinov’s essay titled Do Economic Sanctions Destabilize Country Leaders?, defines economic sanctions as “government-inspired restrictions on customary trade or aid relations, designed to promote political objectives”.
A word of caution: economic sanctions do not mean total ban on economic relations. A ban on only a handful of economic activities constitutes economic sanctions. It does not have to be the entire economic activities that are banned to constitute economic sanctions, as this definition shows.
Applying sanctions on certain aspects of economic activities is generally called “targeted sanctions”, a term that has been framed in the Zimbabwean context, to mean sanctions applied on certain individuals.

I never blamed Tsvangirai for flawed analysis. Please read the article carefully. I blamed analysts. It is not false to say Tsvangirai refused to negotiate with ZPF. He refused by putting forward preposterous conditions, such as requesting the dissolving of a democratically elected government. He also expressed that he would not talk to this government. If he wrote to government asking for talk, I would not be surprised because that would suit his conduct. He flip-flops. While on the one hand he asks for talks, on the other he is shouting that he does not want to talk to an “illegitimate regime”. So effectively, whom does he want to talk to if he is going to say that he wants to talk and yet on the same breath say that he does not want to talk to the government because its illegitimate. Therefore I share in your dilemma.
You do not have the basis of substantiating your facts that Mugabe lost. Give me one example of legally recognised evidence that says Mugabe lost. If you show me anything not official and legal, I will also pluck my own “evidence” from nowhere to claim that Mugabe was elected legally.
Pan Africanist vocabulary does not mean eliminating all conflicts, as you want to suggest. Such arguing is unfortunate. Why are you not talking about Ivory Coast, Liberia, Burundi, Togo, etc? Too scared that you might find African success? Yes, we cannot eliminate all the conflicts but so much has been done. On the contrary, the UN and the West have not been successful in ending any conflict in Africa. In fact they have caused wars and conflicts e.g. they let the Rwanda genocide happen.
I do not see where the tribalism is. I guess I should have created a Ndebele opposition party from the air and criticised him. But because I am not good at inventing and try to be a pragmatist, I stuck to reality hence my reference to Tsvangirai. He has been in the thick of things. For all purposes, why would I ever talk about Welshman when he is a mere sec. Gen instead of Mutambara the president? I am talking about leaders and not the Sec. Gen. Should I not talk about Tsvangirai because I would be branded tribalistic? Let’s be realistic. I guess the accusation that you can make about me is that I focused too much on Tsvangirai at the expense of Mutambara. But of course, he is the main protagonist, as I explained earlier. People still write little about Mutambara. Probably you do not like the spotlight on Tsvangirai’s failings. The guy is a disaster and has failed the opposition and the country.

Anonymous said...

I also think kuthula is a tribalist. the only reason why he doesn't attack AGO is because he was appointed by the Ncube and others mostly from Mat. Nothing to do with Pan Africanist vocubulary. Kuthula is naive to think that in politics you dont change direction. Events at a particular point directs you on your next move. ZPF, and Muabe himself does that. He had promised to retire at end of current, but has he just done.

Anonymous said...

Kuthula, the sanctions put in place by the United States are documented in the form of an exective order issued by the President of the United States and such documents are available to the public on request from the Federal Register of the US government. If you had bothered to request these documents, you would have been able to confirm that the sanctions are indeed targeted on individuals rather than on the Zimbabwean economy. The US government has infact ruled out sanctions against the Zimbabwean government as an entity - despite calls for such by some senate members - because the US government does not wish to cause any suffering to ordinary Zimbabweans. The only sanctions aimed directly at the government as an entity are an embargo on supplies of arms and military equipment to Harare.

Similarly, the sanctions put in place by the European Union were adopted by the ministers of the EU member countries without going to debate and are documented as well. Documents relating to the session at which the ministers adoped the sanctions are available on request from the EU and they outline the specifics of the sanctions which clearly show that the sanctions are indeed targeted on individuals of the government. Trading relations between Zimbabwe and the EU actually remain strong, contrary to what most people think. The EU takes more than 30 per cent of Zimbabwe’s exports. In 2006, Zimbabwe had a trade surplus of approximately E240 million with EU states. These statistics can be verified through the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe as well as from the European Central Bank.

Anonymous said...

Kuthula, my dear brother, most Zimbabweans are sick of people like yourself who have so much to say in terms of criticism but so little to offer on the way forward. There are so many so called political analysts such as yourself that have had so much to say about Tsvangirayi but have not shown any bravery to match his. What Tsvangirayi might lack in intellect and leadership, he makes up for with his bravery, which is why he is so many Zimbabweans are still enamored with him despite his lack of success in setting us free. Considering all the criticism Tsvangirayi has had to endure from the likes of him, I'm amazed that the man still soldiers on - if I were him I'd have said 'to hell with this' and walked away from politics altogether.

Kuthula said...

interesting comments. will come back to you soon. am going out now. I did not want to keep you waiting without an initial response.
But I m intrigued by the tribalism issue, but it does not even bother me a bit. Secondly, someone suggests that I have never seen the ZDERA of 2001. I have read it from cover to cover as well as the EU sanctions policy. My position of these issues are informed by those very documents. I think the 2006 US State Dept. report released this week is interesting.
No one challenges the definitions I issued.
Someone says that I do not offer any solutions. I think I have extensively. And in this article being discussed I also provided a solution: DO NOT JUST COOK UP IMAGINED SCENARIOS IN DEALING WITH PROBLEM BECAUSE THEN WE WONT GET THE RIGHT SOLUTIONS. I could nto invent any solution better than this...at least for my small mind. I guess what you might want to criticise me is the quality of my suggested solution.
Someone admits that Tsvangirai might lack intellect and leadership. Very right and that is the very reason why I say he cannot be a leader. That is suggesting a way forward. It is not being tribalistic.

Unknown said...

My friend Kuthula, you are probably tiring from the struggle for a free and democratic Zimbabwe. It is normal for human beings to reflect on their failures and identify imaginary scapegoats.

As Zimbabweans we should shoulder collective blame for the failure to achieve favorable change in our country. Tsvangirayi has done what WE have told him to do and as such, the fact that our situation has not improved is not his sole responsibility.

If beating up people in order to win an election is your idea of a democratically elected government then you need to do more research on this subject.

Anonymous said...

I dont know when Kuthula was last in Zim, or whether he has been in Zim during a period leading to any ofthe elections since 2000. I was in Zim, infact Harare in 2002 during the Pesidential election. I went to cast my vote at Marlborough Civic Centre polling station as early as 8am on first polling day. I did not manage to cast my vote until 12 midnight tht that day. There was clear evidence everything was being done to frustrate the electorate into not voting. I only voted (that late) because of my determination to vote. But unfortunately many, if not most pple gave up. MDC lost by 400 000 votes we are told. This gvt is what kuthula has the chick to call a democratically elected gvt! This is not the only form of electoral fraud during the plebiscite. Zvinavashe was quoted as saying the Army will not salute any President without Liberation credentials, MDC polling agents were chased away from many polling stations in some rural areas. I could go on ana on.... Is this KUTHULA'S definition of a democratically elected gvt. Ngaatibvire. Khambe ayelala.

Kuthula said...

I am back. Sorry for the long absence. Firstly, it is very unfortunate that we discuss how we move forward when we have people so arrogant as to use language such as “Ngaatibvire”. Munoda kuti ndibve ndiende kupi ko? Handisimwana wemuZimbabwe wo? Lami ngingowekhaya bakithi. This kind of arrogance amongst us has pushed the country down the self-inflicted destruction road. We have people who believe that it’s their way or the highway. Yet those very people pretend to be advocates of democracy tenets. It does not matter when I was last in Zimbabwe. Even if I was last home 10 years, I think it does not affect the substance of my arguments. If I had praised Tsvangirai, would the length of my absence from home been an issue?
I have put forward a challenge for anyone to give us evidence that was proven in courts that the elections were not free and fair. I am not the one who said the elections were free and fair. It’s SADC, the very body that MDC and Tsvangirai in particular have invested their trust in to assist them in solving the Zimbabwe situation. Anonymous says there is “clear evidence”, but that evidence has not been accepted by SADC and the Zimbabwean courts to declare the elections unfair and not free. Therefore the evidence is, after all, not “clear”.
Similarly, I can claim, right now that there is “clear evidence” that such and such happened during the elections. Claims unproven in court do not help us in this instance. On the issue that it has been a while since I went back home. Why is it that when a person says positive things, e.g. about Tsvangirai, then they are not challenged about the length of time they have been away from home? It is such self-serving arguments that frame and divert constructive debates. I think the argument or focus of the engagement should have been the issues that I raise. The problem is that if we rely on who has been at home the latest, then many of us would not be qualified to even utter a word.
Michael, if Tsvangirai is doing what YOU told him to do, then it demonstrates the danger and weakness of the opposition. The fact that YOU told him does not make what he is doing right. On the contrary, it has proved that the opposition are not sure about their competence. In other words, by saying that you told Tsvangirai to take a confrontational position (or whatever you choose to call it, it suits me), you are saying that the MDC supporters thought sabotage was going to work, but it has dismally failed and you have left a trail of massive destruction in terms of the economic situation in the country, through the economic sanctions.
I think what you should be doing now is not attacking people who are telling you frankly that your strategies were not sound, but as you rightly say, accept your failures, including those who did not INSTRUCT Tsvangirai to mess up. We now know that the opposition was working with the aggressionists US. And that’s what you instructed Tsvangirai to do?? Interesting.
One interesting thing is that how on earth can MDC expect to get into power when their supporters become, as you say “discouraged”. Political struggles do not require people who become “discouraged”. What will happen if they get into power and meet foreign interests that push them until they get “discouraged”?
Anonymous thinks that I NEVER SAW the ZDER Act of 2001. I think he should have asked me whether I had actually seen it as opposed to making speculations. Speculating is not good. Many times it leaves you exposed. As indicated, I read it cover to cover. Sect. 4 and 6 gives explicit sanctions to individuals and Zimbabwe. Sect. 6 applies sanctions on individuals and Sect. 4 on Zimbabwe.
Anonymous approaches the sanctions issue in a very simplistic manner that can be accepted by a casual observer or ignorant person. First, we need to understand how we define sanctions. I refer you to scholarly definitions on my contribution in this column (comment 4). What Anonymous suggests is that A TOTAL BAN ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES IS WHAT IS DEFINED AS ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. That is a very unfortunate and misleading line of thought. Correct me if I am wrong and explain what you understand by economic sanctions. The EU Comon Policy Position adopted in 2004 specifies that the government of Zimbabwe is under sanctions.
Here is Llyod’s Bank definition of economic sanctions (my third definition):
“Economic, trade or financial sanctions are imposed by governments or the United Nations to exert pressure on individuals or political regimes and for the advancement of foreign policy objectives. Sanctions include a range of financial or trading restrictions, such as freezes on the assets of and travel restrictions on nominated individuals, bans on financing of state-owned enterprises, prohibitions on the supply of technical, financial and other assistance and outright prohibitions on trade”.
Under Common Position 2004/161/CFSP (OJ L 50, 20.2.2004, p. 66), the EU states that they have banned “certain services” and “freezing of funds and economic resources”. In fact, the EU explicitly states that it is “freezing…funds on the Government of Zimbabwe”. The EU says, “the Council adopted Common Position 2004/161/CFSP (1) renewing restrictive measures against Zimbabwe”. In this sentence it does not say individuals.
I think anyone who misleads people about economic sanctions does not respect his/her readers.
It is this insincere discourse that I am suggesting should change if we are take correctly diagnose our problems, not partisanship.
I hope I did not leave out any burning issues. If there are, please feel free to highlight them and I will address them specifically.

Anonymous said...

The EU says, “the Council adopted Common Position 2004/161/CFSP (1) renewing restrictive measures against Zimbabwe”. Kuthula, by quoting this, you are being selective and skirting to justify your point. The wider policy and document clearly states that its aimed at individuals. I wish there was a way I could upload the document so I could prove that your opinion is infact biased and not based on reality. If there are restrictions and sanctions as you claim, how come statistics show that trade is still very high between European countries and Zimbabwe - how do you explain that? Shouldnt the figures have dropped drastically?

Kuthula said...

Yes I am being selective because I am picking one point of the many points that are in the Common Position document. On the contrary, if I were not selective then I would run into the risk of mixing up issues and fall into the trick which the EU exactly wanted to achieve. I think what you might want to criticise me about is whether indeed such text exists and whether it addresses the issue that I claim it does.
Secondly, you say, "trade is still very high between European countries and Zimbabwe". May you please outline these trade statistics or refer us to a document that claims so.
I hope you are not talking about aid to NGOs, which does not go through government or has a budgetary support component.
I have just finished reading a study commissioned by an NGO that demonstrates that aid has substantially increased in Zimbabwe, but to civil society. The devil is that it is being used to meet political objectives of the donors. In that case, while it seems aid indeed is on the rise, but it is rising for the wrong reasons. It’s the same thing with the US, which has said that it was pumping in money to sponsor the opposition.
So it would be simplistic or misleading to suggest that trade is on the rise.
In any case, it is hard to understand how a country whose utilisation capacity has "drastically" gone down to about 30% can have increased trade, especially with its main foes. Are these figures in real terms or comparative (with the past situation before 2000)?
The ZDER Act of 2001 in fact also makes it clear that no international financial institution should give the Zimbabwe government NOT INDIVIDUALS IN GOVERNMENT.
Maybe what you are trying to argue is that from time to time, the Zimbabweans trade statistics fluctuate, or is better than the worst times, e.g better than 2003 - our very bad year.
What do we attribute the fall of FDI to from about US$400m/year to about US$3million/year?
I look forward to these statistics you mention. You can just paste the links.
You can also paste the link to the EU Common Policy Position if you have an issue with the point I picked.

Anonymous said...

I find your article interesting. However I get the impression that you are a ZANU PF apologist or perhaps rabidly anti MDC (Tsvangirai) period. Firstly it is common cause that right from the first election Tsvangirai made an effort to talk to Mugabe. Remember the Ncube - Chinamasa talks. It is Mugabe who had no interest in talking, by the way understandably so because all there is to talk about is when we are going to see the backside of him. Secondly I am amazed how people can be so daft to imagine that Mugabe is a legitimately elected leader. The Guy stole the election big time. I imagine that when he reads articles like yours he must think these people are fools that is why I must continue to lead them. He knows that he stole the election, he is surprised that you don't. I was not able to vote in 2000 because my name had been deliberately deleted from the register, tell me about rigging elections!!! Lastly a good number of people have a misunderstanding about these so called "sanctions". Look if your wife and kids go next door and ask the neighbours not to entertain you because you are brutalising them can you really blame them? That is not to say that the MDC asked the international community to impose sanctions on Mugabe and company, the world is now a global village, no one is going to let you commit atrocities against man kind. They will come after you. Why can't your associates in ZANU (Taliban) PF practice good governance nice and simple?

Kuthula said...

Thanks for your comments. It is irrelevant whether I am a ZPF apologist or rabidly MDC, because I am religiously guided by facts. Engaging my facts and not position would be better off, in terms of substance. But even if I were one of the two, I think you need to understand that it is my democratic right to choose what I want to be. I presume you believe in the democracy ideal and are fighting for it. So in a democracy, I think we need to understand that there are divergent views and preferences that you should not worry yourself about trying to contain.
As I mentioned earlier in one of my contributions, I said that it’s the manner Tsvangirai wanted to engage in talks with Mugabe that defeated the whole dialogue. He did not recognise the present govt. as legitimately elected and yet, like you, did not have any evidence proven in courts or by observers to discredit the elections.
Sure, in the case that Mugabe actually rigged and is laughing at people like me for foolishly saying that his government is legitimately elected, but what can I do? It is the bureaucratic/legal system that we agreed to abide by which is scheming us off. We can’t have our cakes and eat them too. Right now I can say you are such and such, but without proof and say, without the courts not finding you what I claim you to be, then I do not have any grounds for my claims. The tragedy is that even if I saw you do that thing or not, it comes down to the courts to prove or disprove my claims. So blame the law – ironically the religious discipline that so many of glorify!!!
I think many people understand sanctions better than you do, based on your example. You say the neighbours should not only “entertain you”. But you do not tell us that this neighbour could have been the significant contributor to your well-being or not. You do not tell us whether he was providing essentials like the father’s wages. See how your example is very basic and irrelevant. If that neighbour was responsible for your economic survival – and decided to exploit you based on his advantageous position – and your children encourages him/her to cut off the supplies, then certainly these children would be knowing that they are economically ok even without the father or they can withstand the hard times that come with the exclusion of the father Well, if you argue that his exclusion would not affect anyone, then the Zimbabwean situation is giving you a practical answer to your question. You will blame everything else until you become true to yourself and correctly locate the problem.
But I must also add your contradiction. You say your children will go and ask the neighbour not to entertain you and then you say it is not MDC who did that. Who then did it?
It’s good that you talk about the myth of a globalised world. I think even if we accept that there is a globalised world, there are rules with which the “globalised” world functions. The “right to intervene” concept has its operations through the UN and that was not followed – if that is what you suggest happened in Zimbabwe. If we pretend that we are “global citizens” shouldn’t we be equally knowledgeable about globalisation and just not talk about it in vacuum? I say so because talking about things we understand little is dangerous and especially so for globalisation.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 6.34am 9/4/07 - be honest with yourself first but then again i would not expect an honest analysis from you if you are one of the beneficiaries of the "green back". It is a shame that zimbabwean blacks can sink that low to the extent of arguing their hearts out that zimbabwe is not under economic sanctions. If zimbabwe cannot access all credit lines from all international institutions what does that mean? Even Aids drugs are being withheld - dont tell me you dont know that!! If a trade minister can not travel to international markets to hold talks with his counterparts, it impacts on the economy not on the minister -As much as you may want to paint Khutula a zpf apologist - I`m not wrong to label you as an imperialist stooge.period. FAIR DEAL. Moving on to other issues, most contributors here are not being fair on Khutula and I`m nt surprised if they are all shonas. I`m Shona myself but I get sick each time someone different from us holds a different opinion from us we always want to "assasinate that person`s character" by putting labels on the person instead of debating issues objectively. This rhetoric of "tribalist" to say the least sickens me. We (shonas") take advantage of being in the majority and we dont want to respect the minority`s views. I suspect thats the main reason Tsvangirai did no see it necesary to respect his own party`s constitution with regards to the senate votes, he knew he is shona and therefore he is in the majority tribe, whatever he says goes! Democracy is about tolerance, living peacefully and respecting views of the minority. Labelling Khutula a tribalist for holding different views with yours does not show tolerance neither does it show respect!! The editor of newzimbabwe has been under such attack for a long time and I`m glad he doesn`t respond to these malicious accusations. To me it appears to be a way of wanting to control or rather a sinister way of oppression, trying to silence those who do not agree with us - NO NO I DISAGREE. Everybody must be free to express their views without fear in a democratic society. The more i read more of these comments (you may also want to have a taste of some of these abusive comments from zimdaily forums) the more I convince myself that zimbabweans are not ready for democracy, the only option for us is dictatorship rule or imperialist rule - one of the two. Until such time we have matured above selfishness can we only dream of democracy. I dont like the current govt but the alternatve is equally bad if not worse. As Zimbabweans we do not respect each other - what we`re good at is discrediting each other and washing our dirty linens in public - why cant we learn to respect each other the same way we respect our immediate family members - Ndatsamwa ini. Only if we care to remove this poisonous SELFISHINESS virus among us can we make zimbabwe a better place for us and generations to come. Well done Khutula for the blog and dont be cowed by these "tribalists" into following their opinions. I dont agree with mst of your views but I respect your opinions- thats what makes western democracies tick - diversity of ideas.

Anonymous said...

Kuthula, how do you get the courts to prove the elections were rigged when ZPF officials such as Mudede refuse to avail ballot boxes for inspection saying it requires a lot of resources? For 2000 elections, werent some of the seats won by Zpf nullified by the courts and the appeals made thereafter never heard by the Supreme Court. these judgements were made before zpf iteferred with the judiciary. I think your lengthy arguments are empty words. all you have achieved is demonstrating your command of the english language and showing us which books you have read but reasoning chaiyo akhula ngitsho.

Kuthula said...

You ask a pertinent question and then inadvertently answer yourself immediately. If the courts nullified other results, then why would they not prove election rigging in other constituencies? Evidently those defective election results were nullified. The complainants brought their cases to the courts and got justice. How then do you think that the courts are efficient when the MDC wins and interfered with if they lose? Of course, there might be something to investigate about your allegations, but as of now it remains nothing but an allegation.
If, as you suggest, some cases were never heard in the Supreme Court, were they going to firstly, all succeed and secondly, would they have drastically changed the results? You suggest that they could. On the contrary, I think that they would not have all succeeded and we could have, incident by incident had “clear evidence” of rigging. But to suggest that because there were some irregularities and therefore it was going to drastically change the elections is very debatable, if not totally impossible. But we can’t base both our positions on speculation, which leaves us hamstrung and having to shift our focus to the judicial system. Do we have evidence that the judiciary was “interfered” with? That’s another matter of speculation. Do we therefore become perpetual speculators?

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry if I offended you in my earlier submission on this article on 9 April at 6:34am. I think each one of us is entitled to their own opinion. What we should be discussing here are facts. We all know that facts are stubborn. If I can digress a little, I found Nancy's comments about Zimbabweans not being ready for democracy interesting. Vladimir Ilyich Lenin, founder of the Soviet empire once said that the USSR needed a strong hand to keep it intact. We all know what happened to the USSR the moment that strong grip was released. Perhaps Nancy has a point, Zimbabwe either needs a dictator or a colonial master in order to keep it going.
Back to my main point, I am still of the opinion that Mugabe has no interest to talk to anyone, not then, not now. We cannot expect him to negotiate himself out of power just like that. I presume that even if Tsvangirai had recognised Mugabe as the legitimate leader, he would not have agreed to talk. I also think that it was Tsvangirai's right to contest the result of an election in court. It was unfair to say "You drop your court challenge first, then we will talk". By now it should be clear to all and sundry that Mugabe has no intention of going anywhere ari mupenyu.
Much has been said about how the opposition forces have blundered and put us in a precarious position. Can I ask you Kuthula to give an analysis of where ZANU PF has gone wrong and how they can be corrected. Has ZANU PF contributed in any way (I mean negatively) to the present state of affairs or is it just the imperialists and the opposition? What do you think?

Anonymous said...

TO Kuthula: MDC was denied justice when the Supreme court failed to attend to appeals by ZPF @paaliamentarians' whose results were nullified by the courts. period.

You seem to take an academic approach to the Zimbabwean crisis. Its sad, because reality is miles away from your theoretical points. Your wide reading does not seem to be of help. Arguing on a crisis of this nature like a high school debate where you take a position and defend it to the end.

Kuthula said...

Anonymous,

I think you might be aware that I am not vouching for President Mugabe’s appetite to engage in dialogue with MDC, but of course, the public statements – which we all mostly depend on – has indicated that he wants to talk. Tsvangirai has also publicly said he wanted to talk but unfortunately does not recognise the current government. This is the sticking point. You say President Mugabe “would” not have agreed to talk even if Tsvangirai recognised him as a leader. Its good you used “would” and therefore not making a definite statement. Sure, but this statement is only as good as speculation goes. It is mere speculation to say that in whatever circumstances President Mugabe would have refused to discuss.
ZPF has contributed as well to the situation in Zimbabwe. For instance, I think they have let corruption run out control. Corruption is bad. Secondly, ZPF was wrong to accept the implementation of ESAP, - but still there are very solid grounds to partly excuse them. They had their hands tied.
I think ZPF also failed in nation building, which is evident in this column through tribalism and the political economy in Matabeleland. TRIBALISM IS RAMPANT AND STINKS. I think Nancy said it all and won’t dwell on that here although I think it’s a topic that we should discuss at length.
And another mistake of ZPF was not to embrace NEOLIBERALISM wholesale. While it’s a negative that gave rise to the economic violence being inflicted by the West, but it’s a positive for Zimbabweans because we want to protect our resources and benefit from them. But the problem is that there are several neoliberal elements within ZPF who are pushing for neoliberalism and its myth of economic globalisation.

Kuthula said...

Thulani, you are right. The MDC was denied justice at that instance, but no one denied this clear fact. Maybe there is someone who opposed that fact - but I have seen any contribution from anyone disputing that fact - but certainly not me. What is in dispute is whether those seats would have made substantial difference.
Yes, I draw heavily from academia. Thulani, you seem to be contemptuous of academic debates. But surprisingly, the very crisis is based on these sets of ideas (theories) coined and manipulated by academic ideas. You want to play a game outside of its field. You can’t play professional soccer on a bowling field. Politics is heavily influenced by academic ideas and it would be a tragedy if you did not know that.
Constitutionalism is informed by certain theoretical ideas; economic models and politics are informed by certain theoretical ideas generated and are even driven by scholarly perspectives. For you to turn around and deny this is very unfortunate.
On the contrary, if you do not use these theories and body of knowledge, then I guess that is why the opposition agenda is faltering.

Richard NYIRENDA said...

hebo Matshazi, excellant article as evidenced by the debate generated. i am not going to say much since a lot has been said already. Just one point though, you need to be fair and give more credit to MDC and Tsvangirayi, they have had to operate under the most difficult of conditions, they have been persecuted, maimed and killed, they need a court order for anything that they need to do. And why do you not condemn the state terrorism that Zanu is inflicting on the people. Surprised that people like you out there still see some positives within Zanu after what they have done to our beloved country.

Kuthula said...

Yebo Richard. Thanks for the contribution. If I may ask: why do you frame your argument as “people like you out there still see some positives within Zanu”. I think no one has been dwelling on ZPF’s positives. On the contrary, there is one contributor who asked the negatives of ZPF. So this whole dimension is new. The main debate is not about how good ZPF is but how bad we as analysts explain issues and therefore lead the rest of our readers to debate the Zimbabwean situation from a flawed position.
Not even one person has attempted to answer that question, yet it’s very relevant, before we even begin going to other higher-level issues. We have to get good and accurate information to act upon not one fueled by hatred or opposition to ZPF. I do not think its much to ask for, especially from the literate Zimbabwean population who should know the critical importance of such a position.
But if I may attempt to answer your question nevertheless. The bitter truth is that whatever way you view ZPF has managed to win elections. If you deny this fact, then you are in the position of my original argument: failing to see things for really what they are.

Anonymous said...

Following on your response to Richard's contribution, where you say ZPF has managed to win electections by whatever way, my input is : This is where the legitimacy question of the ZPF government comes in. The whatever way has to be defined. Many have argued that there was violelence, politicised food distribution, chasing away of opposition's polling agents in the very eyes of the police, some statements attributed to Zvinavashe that the army will not salute anyone without war of liberation credentials, etc etc. If the 2002 elections were to be free and fair for example, why cahase away some observers and accredit friendly ones. one could go on and on

Kuthula said...

Yes, “whatever way” is very critical. I agree with you that viewed from different angles, people would have different views as is evident here. And according to those respective perspectives that is where the legitimacy question can rightly come in. However, the African Union or the SADC are not “friends” or “friendly” but they are a part of us. I hope you see what I mean. I do not mean that they are not our friends but people whom we live with. If there are any people expected to be observers, it is the AU and SADC. The West could be invited. In fact, why should they be invited? Does AU or the SADC observe their elections? If they are, then fine they should be called as well.
But the justification for not calling them is clearly their confrontational stance and previously stated intention NEVER to accept results where ZPF wins and of course their regime change agenda. If someone is coming to observe with an already decided mind, then it is not unfortunate.
What did the SADC and the AU say about the issues that you outline: “violelence, politicised food distribution, chasing away of opposition's polling agents in the very eyes of the police, some statements attributed to Zvinavashe that the army will not salute anyone without war of liberation credentials, etc etc”.

Anonymous said...

In my view, the SADC has not been impartial. It has sided with the current establishment. Most presidents in the SADC emulated the Zim president in wantingf to stay in power until death or for a long time. Some of them tried to change their constitutions to enable them to stand again and luckily enough for those states, failed. The SADC is not a fair referee on the Zimbabwean crisis.

Some people talk of regime change as if its an evil thing. What is the whole idea of an opposition party. Is it not to get in power? There should be competition for the political office to force sitting rulers to govern properly. People should be able to ctitic gvt policies freely without being labelled unpatriotic. and if the sitting govt really believes their policies work, they should be to defend them in debates. Manje in Zim if you ctiticise any ZPF policy pako papera.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

One thing I find interesting about these people who try to champion Pan Africanism is that most of them ran away from their homes and now live in the land of "Imperialists"!!. Why??

Because there, the society is more tolerant and anyone is allowed to waffle about his/her ideas no matter how silly they are. E.g. here in Netherlands there is a political party which "champions" the rights of people who want to have sex with underage kids!

When these "Imperialists" try to bring such tolerance to Africa, we are told they have other motives.

The following statements by Nkuruma & Muzenda capture the view of African politicians that they have a monopoly of intelligence and that the opinions of the people that they rule do not matter:

Nkuruma: "We would rather misrule ourselves than be ruled properly by others"

Muzenda: "If ZPF selects a baboon as its candidate, then you should vote for that baboon!!"

April 12, 2007 2:24 PM

Kuthula said...

That might be true that the SADC has been partial, but what can we say about MDC’s efforts to engage a partial organisation? Tsvangirai, the leader of MDC has not said so. Is it your own opinion about SADC or a fact? If it was bad to change the constitution, then the fact that these leaders respected the wishes of the people demonstrates that they are responsive to democratic efforts. Now if the SADC is not a free referee who is?
Yes, regime change is an evil thing. But of course, I understand where you are coming from. You want to suggest to us that going to elections and then another party winning thereby toppling ZPF is acceptable. If it is done in that way then that sort of regime change is acceptable. However, that which is being carried out by US, UK and the West is EVIL and illegal: not in Zimbabwe alone but even internationally. It has been condemned many times even including Jean Chretien, the former Canadian Prime Minister who condemned the regime change agenda against Zimbabwe.
Michael, I do not know why you think it is scandalous to champion Pan Africanism when one is in the West or in the moon. If that is scandalous, then it is equally scandalous for those who purport to be fighters of democracy and patriots who write in the comforts of the West, just like these supposed Pan Africanists.
Tolerance is a word I would use sparingly because it has a lot of connotations. One is an acknowledgement that an issue is generally undesirable but a person would nevertheless appreciate it. Even if we are sanitise tolerance, as a member of the society that you glorify I think you know quite well the restrictions and unstated boundaries that are placed on minority groups by the very societies that you exalt. Why, if the societies are as romantic as you want us to believe, that Blacks, for instance, are disproportionately represented in all negative things such as crime, environmental racism, unemployment and poverty? I would suggest that you tamper your romanticisation of the societies that you talk about.
I also realise that you do not understand that tolerance has limitations even in a democracy. Some things are just not acceptable. You can’t reward pedophiles with democratic rights especially when your very Holland is refusing the Muslims to live the way they want, or France and UK refusing to have the Muslims wear their headgear? How do you then account for these different tolerances in a supposedly democratic nation – in fact Holland is said to be very liberal. But of course, we know the truth: it is not as liberal as we might be made to believe.

Anonymous said...

KUTTHULA, you ask whether my view of the partiality of SADC is a fact or my opinion. ITS A FACT. Its most of your points, in fact, that are opinions. You are long on words, and you cantconvince anyone that all you have said in this debate is factual.

Anonymous said...

How elections are rigged in Zimbabwe


Sat, 14 Apr 2007 05:03:00


Ropa Repanyadzonya


Dear beloved revolutionaries.......



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I'm a former military intelligence officer in the ZNA and witnessed Brigadier-General Nyikayaramba planning and carrying out these rigging missions with selected war veterans still serving in the ZNA. Any elections without sorting these issues would be a waste of time.

It would be foolish to just cry about a new constitution. As a former intelligence officer let me tell you how elections are rigged.

1. Nyikayaramba goes out on intimidation missions to all elections and by-elections with carefully selected silly war vets and plots the rigging with Zanu-PF presiding officers and observers.


2. A few Zanu-PF votes wrap MDC votes and are counted as Zanu-PF votes as no one can raise their voice to query this in rural areas.

3. Urban voters who are the majority in Zimbabwe are not registered and those on the register are erased if they are not known Zanu-PF activists. Rural voters are constantly registered to make it appear as if they are more than urban voters. This artificial anomaly is then used to stuff ballots with ghost votes.

It is a known fact Zanu-PF has always hidden from many that there are more people living in the Urban areas in Zimbabwe. Harare and Chitungwiza alone have an estimated population of 4 Million, 2.8 Million in Harare and around 1 Million in Chitungwiza and surrounding areas, SOURCE these figures can easily be verified, if 700 000 mostly in Harare were affected by operation Murambatsvina according to the UN and that 700 000 is a small and insignificant fraction of the population, that should tell you roughly tell you how many people live in Harare.

4. The outcome is predetermined with elections giving a choreographed face to the rigging. that is the role of the central elections centre stage managed by Mudede and silly doctor Nzuwa. Figures are worked out and readjusted to placate the population and opposition by making them think they actually lost when they would have actually won before the doctored results are announced.

That is why they start announcing Bulawayo and urban results to give a sense of false euphoria to the people so they can laugh last. watch Mudede's controlled laughing expression when announcing the false results, starting with opposed MDC victories.

Way Forward

1. Independent registering of voters by SADC officials with ID cards or birth Certificates or passports and not letters from Zanu-PF chiefs. Urban landlords should give anyone over 18 letters of proof of residence. The MDC must organise this. A new constitution will not address this on the ground.

2. Independent counting of votes by SADC and international officers with no soldiers, police, CIO involved. A new constitution won’t guarantee this. The soldiers and war vets in the military can still rig.

3. Publication of results and keeping independent records for each polling station. All polling stations must have MDC officials and agents to prevent rigging.

This allows for easy auditing and verification so that overall figures are not manipulated at a command centre with no corresponding verification from individual polling stations. Only when published figures from polling stations agree with those at the command centre can a result be free from manipulation.


4. Counting should be at each polling station. No ballots should be carried away to a central place as this allows for rigging. It makes sense to count, agree on the figures and only send the figures to a constituent and then provincial centre. At least all parties will know figures from each station and can check for accuracy and transparency.

Yours truly


Ropa Repanyadzonya

Ropa Repanyadzonya is a former Military Intelligence Officer with Zimbabwe National Army (ZNA) and prefers to be identified only with a pseudonym. He/She can however be contacted on panyadzonya(at)yahoo.com should you require more details.

Kuthula said...

Sure, of course its not everything that is a fact.I have not also claimed that all my points are facts. Rather, I suggested that I religiously rely on facts and pragmatism to guide my opinions.

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