"Tsvangirai has always been a hit-and-miss politician—capable of strokes of genius but also prone to periods of wayward and ineffectual leadership". Stephen Chan.
Tsvangirai's main source of advice was the US embassy in Harare, especially after Mugabe's government arrested Biti on treason charges and imprisoned him two weeks before the runoff. The deliberate effect of the arrest was to deprive Tsvangirai of local guidance during the crucial closing stages of the campaign. This became a test of nerve: Zanu-PF wanted to break Tsvangirai's will by isolating him and threatening him physically.
The US embassy sought to fill the gap, and was complicit in Tsvangirai's decisions to withdraw from the elections and seek refuge in the Dutch embassy. The plan was to hand Mugabe a hollow victory which the west could then attack. The US analysis was that the polls had already been fixed so a Tsvangirai victory was impossible. Participation would only legitimise a brazen "steal." The idea was also to create an image of such great intimidation that even a leader of the opposition could find safety from assassination only on diplomatic soil. I want also to say unequivocally that the Americans screwed up.
When Tsvangirai withdrew, Zanu-PF could hardly believe their luck. They were beginning to realise they were on the verge of overplaying their only hand, that of violence. Then, out of the blue, Tsvangirai solved all their problems for them. Contrary to western information, Tsvangirai's consultation of his own party members, who did indeed protest they didn't want to die for nothing, was brief and sketchy. More...
Source: Prospect Magazine
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