The Flip Side with Kuthula Matshazi
While there are almost negligible chances that a divided Movement for Democratic Change could win in the harmonised elections that are seven months away it is interesting to see how an equally divided Zanu PF would manage a win.
One quick reason that would be advanced by those opposed to Zanu PF is that since it is the party in power it would rig the elections. This explanation would however fall short in explaining to us how Zanu PF fails to rig in strategic places such as Harare where, for symbolic reasons they need to be seen winning. Harare being the capital city where the central administration of the country is based would ideally be an area Zanu PF would want to control. Matabeleland is critical for national unity. After the early 1980s political tensions and the subsequent unity accord, the government has been eager to be seen as healing the wounds and also bringing into mainstream the marginalised province.
Although Zanu PF is divided into two camps, it is lucky that it has a candidate in President Robert Mugabe that can still hold the party together and still move it forward as a unit. Zanu PF is reported to have two camps namely that of Vice President Joyce Mujuru and Minister of Rural Housing Emmerson Mnangagwa.
On the other hand, the MDC does not have that sort of person who can hold the party as a unit while the fight for leadership positions still continues. Leadership battles have a dilapidating effect. No one leader can be a contestant and judge at the same time and expect an uncontested outcome. This is not to imply though that such scenarios of a leader who is both contestant and judge might not occur and bring a positive result as a general rule. It might occur but successful examples are uncommon. The MDC example demonstrates this point well.
The two MDC leaders, Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara are pushing forward the process of leadership while carrying their baggage of vested interests. The problem with such a scenario is that when the two leaders clash in their views, almost everything else is affected. Equally when the leaders are of one mind there is progress. We saw that in the MDC after the March 11 clash of the opposition with the police. The two MDC leaders came together in solidarity and vowed to create a united opposition that would take Zanu PF out of power. For a while, it seemed that the MDC was going to create a united front. Of course, they had not indicated that they were merging, but probably this would have been a step towards the reconciliation of the two sides.
Along the way differences occurred and part of the main problematic issues were of leadership positions and the whole unity effort came down crumbling like humpty dumpty.
If Zanu PF did not have a third candidate, who in this case is President Mugabe it could have faced a similar predicament. However, President Mugabe has helped Zanu PF remain standing amid the fractured units. Not only is he helping to keep the party together, he is also able to keep the opposition weak and defeated.
It is my belief that President Mugabe could indeed retire by December as Dr. Ibbo Mandaza suggested in the British Broadcasting Corporation programme World Debate. But the circumstances of President Mugabe might not be what many people think: that he is being pushed out. I doubt that there is anyone who can be able to push out President Mugabe in Zanu PF right now. And sure, he is not invincible (as teenagers think they are) but experience has shown us that he is much in control even though some elements might want him gone by now because they figure out that it would be to the advantage of their leadership aspirations. I think Mandaza meant that by December this year there would be a consensus within Zanu PF of who might be the new leader after the party would have elected him/her under a generally accepted system. Meanwhile, the message that President Mugabe is the next year’s Zanu PF candidate for the harmonised elections is a trump card on its own because it would dampen the spirits of the opposition especially the MDC who have found him to be a formidable opponent. That way it gives breathing space to Zanu PF to tear each other apart in its bid to come up with a solid restructured leadership. So in what appears to be a Zanu PF chaos currently there might come out an even stronger party that is geared towards the current and future challenges. The leader that emerges in the Zanu PF December congress would be the one with solid support among Zimbabweans and one who has a clear chance of winning the elections for Zanu PF. And that is the person that President Mugabe would be happy to hand over the reins.
The flip side is that Zanu PF might fail to reach a consensus on the candidate and in which case Tsvangirai nemesis President Mugabe would go on to represent Zanu PF in next year’s elections. That would really be a nightmare for Tsvangirai!
Unfortunately, MDC has not been able to organise in much more like Zanu PF where there is a third candidate to rule. While Mutambara has been busy trying to build a party of the future, short circuiting President Mugabe’s rule and getting into power quickly has obsessed Tsvangirai. Tsvangirai appears to have the majority appeal within the MDC ranks. But the fatality of this blind following is that he is myopic because he is looking at immediate individual gratification and failing to articulate current challenges and linking them to the future. Ironically, his myopia has seen many opportunists flock to him hoping for immediate benefits, which have unfortunately not been forthcoming. Now with the possible defeat of 2008 and the lack of leadership and strategic vision Tsvangirai’s faction would degenerate into disillusionment. As other members entertain their ambitions to replace a leader who would have clearly failed, there is likely going to be chaos. Tsvangirai would defend his turf while the new hopefuls push for leadership positions likely causing a nasty battle that results in factions emerging and hopefully not the start of the disintegration of that faction.
From whichever angle one analyses the situation, things are not looking good for the MDC factions going into the 2008 elections. MDC stands to lose the elections because of its failure to manage its leadership crisis. Zanu PF would win because it would manage its leadership transition effectively and the presence of a third candidate would insulate it from the ravages faced by MDC.
12 comments:
I did tell you they bribe, buy, now you are trying to be neutral after all that pro Zanu talk, now you are trying t be the one who is neutral, hmmm, they got you too, I understand, we all need to make a living. You will never have a backbone. Now you tyr to come back to the people. What did they say, you are a future leader, hmm.
I do not know what you are sayng. Who bribed me? Which people am I trying to come back to? I will articulate PRO ZANU PF talk if its warranted and ANTI MDC talk again if its warraanted and also PRO MDC talk if warranted.
You seem to have been brutalised by the politics of patronage that you think everybody writes for patronage.
I am not a future leader but just an ordinary citizen vigorously engaged in public debate. That's what democracy is all about and not your PATRONAGE.
You see ZANU is out, good, like Jonathen Moyo, change sides, change to the winners, very good, we will need you, youwho takes the winners side, finally you realize they are starving in Zimbabwe, maybe your mother, maybe you send her money, yes
While I really want to discuss with you, I am sorry I do not understand your contention. Thanks for your comments anyway.
Your hatred of Tsvangirai is now pathalogical to it's intensity,You hardly touches Zimbabwean issues without spitting vernom to an innocent citizen who is exercising his democratically right by leading an opposition party against the clueless Dictactor Robert Mugabe.
You also say about Matabeleland "the government has been eager to be seen healing the wounds by bringing the mainstream and marginalised province".
Mfowethu Matshazi,Can yo explain to me how is the Government of Zimbabwe which has inflicted unspeakable pain to the Matabelelanders trying to achieve that.
You seem to be glorifying Mugabe-a coward,whose personnel cowardice is shown by the greatest attacks on civil liberties in our history.
He invented bigotry and tribalism,while shamelesly fixing elections and voting machinery without a paper trail.Today the bulk of people no longer believe that Mugabe has any credibility or legitimacy,He appears to be a petulant tin-horn dictator,remarkable for dishonest,stealth and misrepresentation.Our nation has become an object of shame and ridicule led by a zealot who uses torture,abuse,stealth,kidnapping,surveilance of his own citizens as his tools of his presidency.
I therefore challenge you together with other Zpf zealots to prove beyond reasonable doubt to the nation as to why you still want Mugabe to lead that Country.
I do respect your opinions but i think you are so biased towards one party which has unleashed terror and mayhem in the streets of Zimbabwe through it's destructive policies.
Nhlanhla.
Hi Nhlanhla,
I do not hate Tsvangirai but see him as having fatal weaknesses which are undermined by the high ground that he claims to occupy. Is it wrong for me to focus on him and his weaknesses? If it is wrong then muzzle me. I will keep quite. While ZPF is oversubscribed with critics, the opposition is not and why should we not focus on it? Sure Tsvangirai is practicing his democratic right and that on its own makes him a target of scrutiny because his democratic rights that he pursues claim that they will change my life for the better and I ask: How, when you have all these blunders? Is there anything wrong? Should I criticise you for your views on Mugabe and ZPF which you seem to hate with the same "pathalogical...intensity" that you say I have for Tsvangirai? Beware of being a hypocrite.
ZPF has tried to bring in more ministers from Matabeleland for instance, and has made several promises (some that have not been fulfilled) but it is in no way an argument that its effort has been enough. I did not argue that and do not intend to.
I do not glorify people. I make arguments based on facts on the ground and my opinion, which is informed by facts and pragmatism. In any case, if I were to glorify Mugabe I do not think you would really take me to task seeing that you are someone who believes we all have democratic rights to do what we please or free to associate with whomever we please? Is that not an argument you made for Tsvangirai? I am quite sure you wouldn't want to apply double standards?
"Today the bulk of people no longer believe that Mugabe has any credibility or legitimacy"
You see such statements are uttered emotionally and not factually. You must learn to come to grips with the truth, much as it may hurt.
"I therefore challenge you together with other Zpf zealots to prove beyond reasonable doubt to the nation as to why you still want Mugabe to lead that Country".
You can't challenge me to give you that answer because I will get it wrong. I might say because you and your like minded people who hate Mugabe criticise from afar and don't go to vote. Or that Mugabe's support base is still larger than yours. There are so many reasons. Don't ask me. Ask the Zimbabweans. What I only do is discuss the outcomes after looking at the facts. The rationale for Mugabe to continue last time around is because he thrashed a thoroughly disorganised opposition which initially boycotted elections and then came at the eleventh hour with a hopeless leader carrying hopeless ideas.
I am not biased towards one party, rather biased towards critically analysing the opposition camp which is not being ruthlessly scrutinised. If you read the title of my blog you will understand my position. I interrogate the other story which many times goes unchecked and therefore recklessly packed.
My Brother,i strongly disagree with you when you say my statements
"are uttered emotionally and not factually" Mugabe himself is aware that he no longer enjoys popularity,even from his own provinces.Matshazi,tell me why is Mugabe deliberately stiffling democracy by banning the Independent Press,Why is he resorting to violence everytime people try to register their concern over the way he is governing the country?Why is he rigging elections?{2002)He even infamously declared that those who will try to oppose the Government on the Land issue "Death will befall them" is that kind of Democracy you want Matshazi?
I may be emotionally as you say but let it be known to you that who ever rape and steal against the country and it's citizens,surely they do not deserve
our sympathy.
Close interrogation of your pieces clearly demonstrate your failure
to diagnoses the crisis facing zimbabwe in simplistic manner.
You are trying to divert us from the real source of misery in Zimbabwe and try to make Tsvangirai a scapegoat.He may be weak like any other human being but what is his weakness having anything to do with the present situation of Zimbabwe?You want us to believe that Tsvangirai is to blame for the economy which has already crumbled?
Are you aware that for Thabo Mbeki to be approved and accepted by his own people and the Internationally community,Mandela had to trote around the globe trying to convince the World that Thabo had the capabilities to lead that country well, because many people(just like you towards Tsvangirayi}believed that he was a weak and indecisive leader.But guess what?Inspite of his failure to deal with our own despot in a manner which would have made a difference in Zimbabwean politics,
Mbeki has proved to be the most distinguished statesman of whom Africa has ever produced.He has amazingly transformed the SA economy to a point that has made it the envy of developing countries and he has promoted Democracy and created an atmosphere conjucive of Investments
in contrast to what Mugabe has done to Zimbabwe.
My point is "you must not judge Tsvangirai as if he has been given the chance to be at the State House and failed.LET VOTERS DECIDE.......and it must be in a free and fair elections.
Nhlanhla,
Well, I will take your words as are and will let time prove whether Mugabe is still popular or not. I will not pretend that I know. I will only comment after we have seen it. But I believe he is popular among his supporters, which seem to be in the majority among those who vote. You can disagree with me but we have seen this over the years.
Why are you saying Mugabe banned the "privately - owned" (as opposed to "independent") media.
You are dragging me to the democracy and violence debates, which I am not saying I am not interested in pursuing. We could. I think both sides have been guilty of violence. But that's not my contention. I intended to highlight how, with similar circumstances, ZPF can manage to win elections while MDC can't. I put this down to then inability of Tsvangirai to lead his party. Yes, we can open chapters of violence and other things but do you agree that Tsvangirai has been weak, considering that ZPF and MDC have simialr factional problems? That's my contention.
If we have to discuss about democracy in Zimbabwe or violence, then its something else which we could do so. Each side has very well documented activities of violence.
When I discuss Zimbabwean issues I thought I did it simplistically to the extent that I have been accused of having nothing new "ideas" to offer. To my critics who say this, Iaccept and say that yes I stick to basics and to facts and pragmatism. Now you accuse me of the opposite. I would say maybe I bring complecated issues. If I do, then they are very necessary to the debate and I would have tried as much as I can to simplify them. I do not divert people. Five years ago I was accussed of so many things, among them diversion and yet 5 years later, people accept what I was saying. For instance, people denied the existance and the effects of Tsvangirai's economic sanctions, the role of neoliberal forces and the clandestine role of NGOs in the national crisis. Now they accept. Tsvangirai is not a diversion, he is a BIG PROBLEM in Zimbabwe. Even his colleagues made it clear. I remember Paul Themba Nyathi even implicated him as the mastermind of economic sanctions. How can you absolve someone who called for economic sanctions that are destroying our our country? That's not diversion, he is a problem. We need to focus on him. He is the one who was calling for strikes that affected production when the country wanted productivity.
Tsvangirai is not a scapegoat but actually guilty of messing up Zimbabwe. I would not even want to compare him with Mugabe because he told us that he was on a superior ground than Mugabe hence the need for close scrutiny and application of higher standards.
Contrary to you assertion, the economy was not yet "crumbled". What do you mean by crumbled?
Well, we don't know whether Tsvangirai could be a good leader but it surprises me that Mandela went overseas to plead for Mbeki. Who is the overseas in the succession politics of Zimbabwe? Can we say that the fact that Mbeki was the choice of the overseas people is the reaon we see capitalist class prospering while the Black disproportionately fall into poverty at a time when SA is having a relatively strong economy? We don't want a leader chosen by foreigners. If Tsvangirai cannot convince us then he should not be president. If that were the case I could also argue that I could become the president, but only if I am given the chance. He should simply be judged by his policy agenda, his leadership skills. We don't need to convince the world about our leaders. We should give the world our leader. Does US or UK consult us about their leaders? Or maybe you feel inferior that you have to consult big brother before you make any move...in that case your fate is tied not to your people but Big Brother.
The voters have decided twice that Tsvangirai is not a good leader. Unless you can give us credible evidence to prove otherwise. We are always told that there is "massive" evidence to prove rigging and yet we never get to see the "massive" evidence. Please show me and how on earth can I refute evidence which is in front of my face and there for the world to see?
I am not suprised! It's always the case with "Enemies of Reason".They always want every body to believe that they are the only ones right and the Rest wrong.
There has been overwhelming evidence to prove that those two previous elections were rigged and stolen,Even the Zpf dominated judiciary system is still failing to pass judgement on cases of voter irregularities brought forward by the opposition.Can you tell me why?
Matshazi! Stand up and be a man then the Truth "SHALL SET YOU FREE"
You bodIy states that ZPF is "lucky that it has a candidate in Robert Mugabe that he can still hold the party together and still move forward as a unit" So you mean to suggest that after Mugabe there wont be zpf?
Matshazi,Your thinking is so dangerous and it can cause carnage to the Nation if entertained and taken seriously.
This kind of thinking is the one which has brought terrible woes in our country because people like you hate those who aspire for the presidency in a flawed and blind belief that Mugabe is irreplaceble.
Yes,let me agree with you about zpf's privilledge of RGM as it's candidate,What about Zimbabwe is it also lucky having him as it's leader?
You seem to be blaming everybody for the economics woes of Zimbabwe as if this West you always despise and denigrate while it's providing you with shelter and food owes us.If the rest of us are the Puppets of the west as zpf propagandists say,What the hell was Mugabe doing at the Lancaster,Why did he accept it's guidelines instead of him rejecting it once since it was British outlined plan? Of late,we are having a problem of zpf hypocrites on record of trying to potray themselves as pan-africanists patriotic and loyal to the cause of white free Africa while trying to cover their horrible committed against the cizens of Zimbabwe.
For you to say Zanu pf won the elections is a lie which meets the legal defination of fraud.Prove to me how they won and i will prove to you that the MDC won in a land slide.SIMPLE!
Hi Nhlanhla,
I never said I was right and the rest of the people were wrong. That is you suggestion and I can't help you.
I did not say there was no "massive" evidence, but I said I had not seen it. Could you just show me? Sure, irregularities can be there but does it mean that they can overturn the result? I am sure since you have the confidence in the judiciary you would expect the judges to overturn results where necessary.
I did not suggest that after Mugabe there is no ZPF. Why do you make such assumptions? I only said that as of now Mugabe is able to hold ZPF together and move it forward. Does that mean that "there won't be ZPF after Mugabe"? I don't know why you say this.
How can I cause carnage to the nation when already a carnage was caused by the economic sanctions Morgan Tsvangirai called for?
Criticising Tsvangirai is not hating him. Why do you make it one and the same thing? Why do you misrepresent and say that I said Mugabe is irresplaceable. Your arguments are running into trouble. You have something about me (possibly my position on Tsvangirai) you distaste and yet you have no ammunition to attack me with, hence you resort to creating your own interpretions which you then wrongly attribute to me.
Supposing "this West" offers me food and shelter (although I work for myself), should I not criticise it? And I think you are wrong to suggest that the West does not owe us anything. Our problems as a country are entrenched in the national and international system. So it is unfortunate for you to suggest rather in a reductionist manner that the West owes us nothing. They need to treat us fairly.
You say "If the rest of us are the Puppets of the west as zpf propagandists say,What the hell was Mugabe doing at the Lancaster,Why did he accept it's guidelines instead of him rejecting it once since it was British outlined plan?" I can't answer for Mugabe. Better ask him. I speak for myself.
I am not sure that I am wrong to suggest tha ZPF won the elections. The observers said the elections were free and fair and so I do not have a basis for saying they were not free and fair. This is my contention with you to show me where, for instance external observers said the elections were won by the MDC or that the elections were free and fair. This is the basis of my statement. I do not want to believe what I feel or what I wish. I go with the official record. If we go by something unofficial, I could claim that Zanu Ndonga won 4 seats but were cheated and then go on to try and justify my reasons. Its not as simple as you want to suggest.
Hatred for Robert Mugabe and his government are not enough to bring positive change in Zimbabwe. Concrete and cedible policies on the economy, land reform, HIV/Aids, Zimbabwe's position in the world and Africa, etc is what is needed. Unfortunately, Tsvangirai and his MDC do not have a single policy blueprint on these important issues. One has the uncomfortable feeling that in the unlikey event, that Tsvangirai comes to power policy will be dicated from Brussels, the White House or 10 Downing Street. For that reason, I will not be voting for Tsvangirai in the next election!
Tsvangirai is a puppet eating from the hands of his Wetern masters! Much as I feel Mugabe must retire and leave the reins of power to new blood, I shudder at the prospect of Tsvangirai at Zimbabwe House! All this man is interested in is power at all costs, even if it means all his countrymen die from the effects of Western sanctions against Zimbabwe.
Post a Comment